A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
